

You can use several different sets of values in one or multiple formulas to explore all the different results. What-If Analysis is the process of changing the values to try out different values (scenarios) for formulas. To get the total items bought by each buyer, drag the following fields to the following areas. Then, it will create a pivot table worksheet. It will also create a new worksheet for your pivot table.

You need to set the number of periods in the parameters to see the forecast on the chart.Īfter all, there is the exponential dependence in our example. Most authors recommend using a linear trend line for forecasting sales. The trend equation is a model of the formula for calculating the forecast values. R2 = 0.9567 which means that this ratio explains 95.67% of changes in sales in process of time. We choose a polynomial trend that minimizes the error of the forecast model. We will add a trend line (the right button on the chart - «Add Trend line») on the chart which shows the actual product sales volume.Ĭonfigure the parameters of the trend line:

We will compose the forecast of sales using the data from the previous example. Results of the analysis:Įxcel uses next formula to calculate the standard errors: = SQRT(SUMXMY2('Actual value range' 'range of forecast values') / 'size of the smoothing window'). We tick the «Chart Output», «Standard Errors».Ĭlose the dialog box by clicking OK. The program will place the smoothed levels here and the will define size independently. Output interval –is a reference to the upper left cell of the output range. The damping factor is the coefficient of exponential smoothing (default is 0.3). The input interval is the range of sales values. This alignment method is suitable for our dynamic series, the values of which fluctuate strongly. Select «Exponential Smoothing» from the proposed list of tools for statistical analysis. The connection of the « Data Analysis » add-in is described here in detail. Click at the bottom «Go» to «Add-Ins Excel» and select « Data Analysis ». On the «DATA» tab click the «Data Analysis» button. The task is to identify the main development trend.Įnter the sales data in the Excel spreadsheet: Example: a sales network analyzes data on sales of goods by stores located in cities with a population of fewer than 50,000 people.
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As a rule, regular changes in the members of the series are predictable. Their variability is divided into regular and random components. If you capture the values of some process at certain intervals, you get the elements of the time series.
